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Thursday, 29 November 2012

Q2 FY13 GDP grows at 5.3% versus 5.5% in Q1

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at 5.3% versus 5.5% in the first quarter of the current financial year. An ET Now poll had estimated a growth rate of 5.3%. The consensus estimates of the poll range between 5% to 6%.

According to the released data, the GDP at factor cost at current prices in Q2 of 2012-13 is estimated at Rs 21,83,794 crore, as against Rs 19,23,173 crore in Q2, 2011-12, showing an increase of 13.6 per cent.

The manufacturing sector grew an annual 0.8% during the quarter while the agricultural sector growth rose 1.2 per cent. The mining sector exhibited a growth of 1.9% versus a meagre 0.1% quarter-on-quarter. The construction sector also grew at 6.7% versus 6.3& year-on-year.

Despite the growth coming in line with estimates, Abheek Barua of HDFC BankBSE -0.29 % said that the economic outlook remains weak. "Economic growth may be bottoming out, expect FY1-13 GDP growth to come in at 5.6%," he said.

Commenting on the data, Venugopal Dhoot said that the 5.3% GDP growth rate was expected. RBI has taken some steps to induce growth, he added.

Economists forecast that the FY13 fiscal deficit will overshoot the government target of 5.3%. High current account deficit will continue to impact the rupee.

India's economy could gather pace in the new year, putting behind a dismal year, Goldman Sachs said in a report released on Thursday. Goldman Sachs said Indian economy is expected to expand 6.5% in 2013 thanks to an improvement in external demand and pick-up in reforms, and further accelerate to 7.2% in 2014.

Its upbeat assessment was based on "easing financial conditions, in part driven by some reduction in policy rates, a continuation of reforms boosting confidence, and a normal agricultural crop."

The investment bank pegged 2012 growth at 5.4% and listed a number of measures to accelerate the economy.

"While allowing FDI in retail, the Goods and Services Tax, direct cash transfer of subsidies, and dedicated freight corridor will help, we believe further reforms on fiscal consolidation, financial liberalisation and infrastructure growth will be needed to sustain an improvement in trend growth," the note said.

However, the investment bank warned that the near-term outlook was "difficult" because of weak growth, high inflation, and the twin deficits - fiscal and current account - that makes a quick recovery in investment cycle "unlikely".

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