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Monday, 1 April 2013

See range bound trend in Crude Oil: Karvy Commodities

Crude Oil: Crude oil prices today are trading below USD97/bbl, with a loss of more than half a percent in the international market. Oil prices fell due to concerns of lower fuel demand as economic releases from China and Japan have shown sluggish momentum from the nations. As we predicted in our weekly economic report, the leading manufacturing index of Japan declined more than expected in the first quarter while manufacturing activities from China increased at a slower pace than expected. Exxon Mobil’s Pegasus pipeline with a capacity of 30000 barrels of crude oil per day has shut down due to leakages.
This may result in higher stock piling in the Midwest and weigh down on oil prices. Major European equities will remain closed due to Easter. So, a very sluggish movement can be seen during the European market hours. Besides, concerns related to the Cyprus bank restructuring may continue to pressurize the euro, which may extend the loss in oil prices. From the US, ISM Manufacturing numbers are expected to improve slightly, which may limit the fall in oil prices during the US session. Overall, we expect oil prices to continue their downside movement driven by the above factors. Technically, we expect prices to trade in a confined range for the day.

Natural Gas: This morning, gas prices are trading below USD4/mmbtu, with a loss of more than 1percent in the international market. Gas prices fell on concerns related to lower demand from China and Japan. As we explained in the crude oil part about the sluggish manufacturing numbers of these two major nations, gas prices have taken negative cues from this. There are no major economic releases due from the European market, which may support the sluggish movement in gas prices. However, an expected improvement in the US ISM manufacturing numbers may limit the down-trend in gas prices. Overall, we suggest remaining on selling side for the day.

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