Precious metals news

Precious metals prices rose yesterday as a drop in the dollar triggered bargain hunting after the previous session's sharp drop on news of possible gold sale by Cyprus and uncertainty over Fed's monetary stimulus.  Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange traded fund, stood at 1181.42 tonnes by Apr 11, down by 2.11 tonnes from the previous business day. Holdings in the world's largest silver backed exchange-traded fund iShares Silver Trust stood at 10497.59 tonnes by Apr 11, remains unchanged from the previous business day.

Russia's top gold miner Polyus Gold said on Thursday its sales fell 4 percent, yearon- year, to USD524 million during the first three months of the year due to a gold price decrease. The growth of assets under gold exchangetraded funds (ETFs) in India slowed to 18 percent in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2013, compared with an average of more than 100 percent since inception in 2007, as investors sought refuge in debt instruments due to sagging gold prices.

Fundamental Outlook:

Precious metals prices are trading little changed on COMEX today. We expect prices to remain supportive on account of the ongoing accommodative policies by the US Fed and BOJ.

Natural Gas gains on market talk of bullish supply data

Natural gas futures shot up in afternoon trading on Wednesday, approaching 20-month highs on talk weekly supply data due for release on Thursday will reveal rising demand for the commodity.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in May traded at USD4.093 per million British thermal units, up 1.88%. The commodity hit a session low of USD4.026 and a high of USD4.160.

The U.S. Department of Energy will release weekly supply data on Thursday, though early withdrawal estimates range from 20 billion cubic feet to 36 billion cubic feet.

Inventories increased by 11 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change for the week is a build of 15 billion cubic feet.

Total U.S. natural gas in storage stood at 1.687 trillion cubic feet as of last week, 32% lower than last year at this time and 2.1% below the five-year average. Gas inventories had held above the five-year average since September 2011.

Meanwhile, updated weather forecasts called for a return of below-normal temperatures for central portions of the U.S., which pushed up prices even further.

U.S. Elsewhere on the NYMEX, light sweet crude oil futures for delivery in May were up 0.28% and trading at USD94.47 a barrel, while heating oil futures for May delivery were down 0.56% at USD2.9449 per gallon.

Kingfisher fails to provide clear revival plan: Lenders

Kingfisher Airlines has submitted a revival plan to the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) today, although the plan has no clarity on funding source and timeframe for re-starting operations, say sources.
After submitting the plan, Sanjay Aggarwal, the airline's CEO said that initial funding of Rs 650 crore will be infused by parent UB Group. He however did not divulge more details on when the airline will be able to resume flights.

Exclusive banking sources told CNBC-TV18 that the plan in unclear and inconclusive like previous plans submitted by the airline. The airline has stopped flying since October last year following a strike a section of employees over delay in salary payment. The airline has since then talking about roping in investors to raise funds but there is no development on this front.

The airline's flying license expired in December 2012, and the DGCA has refused to renew it due to the airline’s inability to raise funds

It is  extremely crucial for chairman Vijay Mallya to provide a concrete revival plan which will help him start operations. .

But the latest plan submitted by Aggarwal has upset bankers since it lacks concrete initiatives.

Saddled with over Rs 7,000 crore debt, the airline has faced flak for its inability to repay lenders. KFA had in January this year said that it will resume operations by March with seven aircraft and will later extend it to over 20. However, it has not been able to convince the regulator and also its lenders about how it will raise funds. According to a report in the Financial Express, State Bank of India has sent a legal notice to KFA seeking recovery of loans. KFA can either suggest an out-of-court settlement or take legal recourse, in which case bankers will move the debt recovery tribunal (DRT), the report said further quoting a banker.

Goldman Sachs cuts gold price targets, recommends to short

Goldman Sachs cut its gold price forecasts for a second time in six weeks on Wednesday, citing expectations for an acceleration in US economic growth and the metal's recent lacklustre price performance. The bank lowered its 2013 average gold price forecast to $1,545 an ounce from $1,610 and its 2014 price view to $1,350 an ounce from $1,490.
It also advised that investors close a long COMEX gold position, recommended in late 2010, and replace it with a short COMEX position.
Goldman had already cut its gold forecasts in late February, reducing its 2013 price view from $1,810 an ounce. Its current forecast amounts to a fall in the average gold price year-on-year for the first time since 2001, when the metal's 12-year bull run began.

"Despite resurgence in euro-area risk aversion and disappointing U.S. economic data, gold prices are unchanged over the past month, highlighting how conviction in holding gold is quickly waning," Goldman said in the note.

"With our economists expecting few ramifications from Cyprus and that the recent U.S. slowdown will not derail the faster recovery they forecast in (the second half of 2013), we believe a sharp rebound in gold prices is unlikely."

It also cut its three, six and 12-month COMEX gold price forecast to $1,530, $1,490 and $1,390 a troy ounce from $1,615, $1,600 and $1,550 a troy ounce, respectively.

Goldman recommended closing the long COMEX gold position that it first initiated on October 11, 2010 for a potential gain of $219 a troy ounce.

"While there are risks for modest near-term upside to gold prices should US growth continue to slow down, we see risks to current prices as increasingly skewed to the downside as we move through 2013," Goldman said.

"In fact, should our expectation for lower gold prices continue to prove correct, the fall in prices could end up being faster and larger than our forecast, as aggregate speculative net long positions across COMEX futures and gold ETFs remain near record highs."

Spot gold was down 0.3 percent at $1,580.71 at 0926 GMT, while US gold futures for June delivery were down 0.4 percent at $1,580.80.

SEBI has gone beyond SC order, says Sahara Boss Roy

The row between Sahara Group and market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) is likely to get even nastier as Group Chief Subrata Roy is calling market regulator's action against the group an act of personal vengeance.
Playing a victim, Subrata Roy minced no words in criticizing the market regulator in an exclusive interview to CNBC-TV18 where he claimed that SEBI was making up stories without checking facts. He even went on to say that SEBI had gone beyond Supreme Court's order and was breaking all rules and law.

The market regulator had today called Roy and three other group directors to discuss sale of group's properties and recovery of unpaid dues. SEBI and Sahara Group has been in a tussle after the Supreme Court order directed the market regulator to attach properties of Sahara Group in connection with the refund case involving an estimated Rs 24,000 crore payment to over 30 million small investors.

In February, SEBI had ordered a freeze on the assets and bank accounts of the two Sahara group companies namely Sahara India Real Estate Corporation (SIREC) and Sahara Housing Investment Corporation (SHIC).

Roy said that in the meeting held today, SEBI demanded details of his personal properties. Surprisingly, Roy who is known for living a lavish life claimed to have no immovable properties and said that he had cash of around Rs 2 crore in bank accounts and gems and jewellery worth Rs 1 crore only.

"Company provides us all facilities...personally I am not a very rich man, the company is very rich," he said. 

Roy said that many other government investing agencies were activated against the group and hinted that there were political motives behind  actions of Reserve Bank of India and SEBI. He promised to come out with the truth and proofs of vengeance against the group at the right time.

On various occasions earlier, including through newspaper advertisements, Sahara Group has accused SEBI of not providing an opportunity to meet the group chairman Roy for presenting their point of view. Sahara claims that it has already repaid most of the investors directly and its total outstanding refund liability was less than Rs 5,120 crore, which it has given to SEBI.

Now, the Securities Appellate Tribunal (SAT) is scheduled to hear Subarta Roy's appeal against a previous SEBI order for attachment of its bank accounts, assets and investments on April 13.

Buy Gold around Rs 29550; SL Rs 29430: Nirmal Bang

Nirmal Bang has come out with its technical report on metals and energy. According to the research firm, Gold prices are expected to witness a range bound move from Rs 29850 to Rs 29500. One can trade within the range.

Gold: One can buy around Rs 29550 for a bounce maintaining a stop loss below Rs 29430.

Silver prices are expected to test Rs 52800 Rs 53000 on higher end. One can buy around Rs 51900 maintaining a stop below Rs 51500.

Copper prices are expected to edge higher till Rs 418 Rs 419 one can buy on dips around Rs 413 -412 with a stop loss below Rs 409.50.

Nickel prices are expected to witness a range bound move from Rs 870 to Rs 890. One can trade within the range.

Lead prices are expected to trade sideways from Rs 114 to Rs 112. one can buy with a stop loss below Rs 111.20

Crude prices are expected to hold Rs 5040 on lower end we expect a range bound session from Rs 5170 to Rs 5040 for the day.

Sell Chana on pullbacks: Geojit

Geojit Comtrade has come out with its report on agricultural commodities. The research firm has recommended to buy Jeera on dips, sell RM Seed below Rs 3610 and Chana on pullbacks in its report dated April 10, 2013.

Jeera May NCDEX: Trend remains positive and as prices stays above 13900, could see buying towards 14300 levels for the day.

RM seed May NCDEX: In the daily candle stick, dark cloud cover pattern indicates bullish trend is exhausted and expect to see lower correction if prices break below 3610 levels.

Chana May NCDEX: If unable to trade above 3594 could see profit booking towards 3545 levels.

Pepper May NCDEX: Pepper prices bounced back from the low of 35435 and closed the day at 35700. As the daily RSI is still showing negative divergence, expect a lower price correction towards 35200 followed by 34800/34500 levels. On the higher side, any trades above 36000 could negate such bearish expectations and start the next leg of bullish rally towards 36300/36500 levels.

Turmeric May NCDEX: Turmeric prices continued the upside momentum and closed at 7060 levels. In the hourly chart, if prices are able to sustain above 6910, sentiments favour a big rally, which may cater prices higher towards 7176 or even more towards 7216 levels. On the lower side, deep correction is seen only a break below 6810 levels for the day.(http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/brokerage-recos-commodities/sell-chanapullbacks-geojit-comtrade_850335.html)

Buy MCX Gold at Rs 29650; target Rs 29740: Dani Comm

Dani Commodities has come out with its report on bullion, metals and energy. According to the research firm, one can buy MCX Gold at Rs 29650 with a stop loss of Rs 29600 for the target of Rs 29740.

Indian Cotton Federation Reduces Cotton Production Estimates To 326 Lakh Bales For 2012-13: As per the latest estimate by Indian Cotton Federation , Indian cotton production for 2012-13 is currently estimated at 326 lakh bales against 330 lakh bales projected by the Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) . Indian Cotton Federation estimated the Gujarat crop at 83 lakh bales , down 2 lakh bales from CAB estimates while Maharashtra at 74 lakh bales, down 1 lakh bales from other projections.

MCX GOLDInternational: Major Support at USD1580. Bearish below USD1580.
Domestic: Buy at 29650, Stoploss 29600, Target 29740.

MCX SILVERInternational: Major Support at USD28. Bearish below USD28.
Domestic: Buy at 52150, Stoploss 51950, Target 52550.

MCX COPPERDomestic: Buy at 413.20, Stoploss 411, Target 4165.

MCX LEADDomestic: Buy at 113, Stoploss 112.50, Target 113.70.

MCX ZINCDomestic: Buy at 103.40, Stoploss 103, Target 104.

MCX ALUMINIUMDomestic: Buy at 103.20, Stoploss 102.80, Target 103.80.

MCX NICKELInternational: Buy at 884, Stoploss 878, Target 894.

MCX CRUDE OILInternational: Major Support for WTI at USD89 Bullish above USD 91
Domestic: Buy at 5110, Stoploss 5085, Target 5140.

MCX NATURAL GASDomestic: Sell at 220, Stoploss 222, Target 217.